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Lecture 13: Unemployment and Inflation

business cycles
measuring unemployment
inflation


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Business Cycles

The American economy experienced increasing material wealth and productivity over the century.

growth of output

However, the growth of output has not been smooth: periods of rising output are followed by periods of falling output. These fluctuations in economic activity are called business cycles.

phases of the business cycle

A recession is a decline in total output, income, employment, and trade usually lasting 6 months to a year, and marked by widespread contractions in many sectors of the economy.


Measuring Unemployment

The labor force consists of those people with jobs and those people looking for work. The labor force participation rate measures the fraction of the civilian, noninstitutionalized population of those 16 years of age or older who are in the labor force.historical labor participation rate
A person is unemployed if they are looking for a job but unable to find one. The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed people by the size of the labor force.historical unemployment rate
Click here to see the most recent employment numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

The official unemployment rate may overstate or understate the true amount of unemployment:


Inflation

The consumer price index (CPI) tracks changes in the prices paid by consumers for a representative or market basket of goods and services. The CPI attempts to measure the "cost of living". The cost of the market basket of goods and services is set equal to 100 in the base year. The CPI for any year is equal to 100 +/- the percent change in the cost of the market basket since the base year. If the CPI equals 150, the cost of living has risen 50 percent since the base year; the cost of living has risen 80 percent since the base year if the consumer price index equals 180. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has a page of frequently asked questions about the CPI.historical consumer price index
The inflation rate is the percentage change in the consumer price index.historical inflation rate

1794 U.S. 
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Business and Economics Division
Pennsylvania State University, York Campus
office: 13 Main Classroom Building
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