Tourism and Fluctuations in the Hawaiian Economy, Journal of Tourism Studies 15(2), December 2004, pp. 67-72.

Time series methods are used to investigate the importance of tourism to the State of Hawaii. The Hawaiian economy exhibits substantial comovement between the number of tourists and income and employment, especially at long-run frequencies. Tourism has its most immediate impact on gross state product, followed in a few months by personal income. Employment is affected after a lag of one year. The Oahu and Kauai economies are most sensitive to fluctuations in the volume of tourism. The Maui economy is correlated with agricultural shocks while the Big Island fluctuates most strongly with earnings from federal government employment.